In theory, the variety of votes cast in each presidential choice year should always be the highest possible on record. After all, the populace of the United says keeps climbing, therefore you figure the pool of voters would an in similar way increase and, therefore, the variety of votes cast. But that"s not exactly how it works.

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Votes space still gift counted from critical week"s election, consisting of 4.3 million in California alone. However we know now that the total number of votes cast in 2016 will exceed those actors in 2012, with about 130 million banked so far vs. 129.2 million 4 years ago. It"s almost particular that, as Hillary Clinton"s project predicted, the total variety of votes actors this year will certainly be the highest on record, surpassing the number cast in 2008.


So far, though, we"re talk about reasonably little development in the number of ballots cast over eight years, even as the populace increased by 18 million people.


Michael McDonald, a political scientific research professor at the college of Florida, has actually compiled turnout figures dating come the dawn of the republic. McDonald compares the number of ballots cast to the variety of people eligible to vote — excluding those as well young or those legally proscribed native voting. His estimate, without all of the votes in, is the 58.1 percent of the eligible populace will have voted by the time all ballots room counted (and the the total number of ballots cast will near 134.5 million, setup that record). That"s a slim dip from 2012.


The readjust in turnout fads wasn"t uniform across states. Data native the U.S. Choice Atlas says that there to be a slim correlation between the adjust in just how a state voted and also its turnout, with says seeing much more turnout because 2012 voting much more heavily Republican.


A few outliers room worth noting. There"s Utah, where turnout dropped since of a absence of interest in Donald Trump"s candidacy — and also the result shifted strongly to the Democrats. There"s Vermont, whereby turnout increased, yet the Democrat walk worse than four years back (you space welcome come speculate why).


Trump likes to crow around the fact that he gained the most votes in Republican major history. It"s feasible that he"ll still obtain the many votes of any type of Republican in general-election history, too, however so much he"s doing about as well as the past few Republican candidates. The big increase this year was amongst those casting a vote for someone various other than the Republican or Democrat, which fight levels last seen during the candidacies of Ross Perot in the mid-1990s.


It"s a really odd result. Turnout up contempt in regards to raw numbers, but down together a percentage of those eligible. A likely drop in votes for the Democrat and also a spike in votes for 3rd party candidates, v the Republican hold steady. More votes because that the Democrat, however the Republican ending up being president.

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