Taking Biden at confront value around Michigan and Wisconsin — where, because that what it's precious (not the much), the leave poll data watch pretty great for him and he came in through a far-ranging polling command — here's where the map goes: If Biden wins those two, plus Maine, Nevada and also Arizona, however nothing else, he's at 269 electoral votes. Which way he's a Nebraska-02 (where he's right now leading) away from hitting 270 on the number, without Pennsylvania and Maine's 2nd District.
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One point to save in mind as we've watched Biden's polling number vanish in states favor Florida and North Carolina: His leads to be much bigger in Michigan and Wisconsin, and also a bit larger in Pennsylvania. For this reason he has a small cushion there to work with.
With the caveat that us still know very, very small about Pennsylvania, let's zoom in ~ above one county: Washington County, i beg your pardon is in the pro-Trump western part of the state. Trump want to drive more votes the end of it; Biden wanted to cut his losses. One smart PA Dem strategist called me he want Biden to obtain to 40% in the county.
According come the NYT, an ext than 98% of approximated votes there have actually been reported. Here's the count:
2020:Trump: 70,760 (61.01%)Biden: 43,949 (37.89%)
2016:Trump: 61,386 (60.51%)Clinton: 36,322 (35.80%)
So, presume NYT's 98%+ reporting estimate is correct, trumped got much more raw votes the end of Washington County choose he wanted — rather a little bit more. And also Biden did reduced his accident compared to Clinton. However Biden didn't gain to 40% favor the strategist want (and i beg your pardon Obama gained beyond twice).
Getting at the “red mirage” idea, if us don’t obtain Atlanta and huge GA burbs, and some major blue locations of Wisconsin and Pennsylvania it’s easy to check out Trump’s command holding for now or staying closer 보다 they should finish up. Exact same for GA senate gyeongju Charlie
Holly My point in stating Montgomery County and Philly is that if those locations aren't report all your votes, the red mirage script is still very much in ar if the president decided that route.
Update: Philadelphia officials tell me they will report more mail-in ballot results between midnight and 1 a.m. The following batch will be reported at 9 a.m.
(I am deleting my write-up earlier that claimed Philly officials claimed they were not reporting much more mail-in outcomes tonight, due to the fact that it shows up to have been based on incomplete information. I apologize.)
Charlie us haven't heard however from Allegheny County, i m sorry is likewise a top resource of democratic votes. However look, this is what PA elected officials said us could happen for months. We may not recognize results in PA for days.
Per Holly's point, store in psychic Montgomery ar is a giant, the 3rd most populous county in the state. It yielded a large margin because that Clinton in 2016.
Update on election Day in Philadelphia native the DA's office here:
"As of 9:00 p.m. Top top Tuesday, 68 events were reported to the Election task Force and 67 incidents were peacefully resolved. The vast bulk of reported incidents involved concerns around unlawful electioneering or interference at polling sites. Most issues involving misunderstandings or miscommunication about voting rules and also laws were fixed by election Task force prosecutors by phone, and also DAO prosecutors and detectives likewise responded come investigate cases at polling website in all six Philadelphia Police divisions. Several occurrences will need follow-up by investigators."
For example, Holly, one example from Jen O’Malley Dillon, Biden’s project manager, the implied they were still counting on Pa can be checked out in this quote. “If we just win one state between North Carolina and Georgia, climate we can lose Michigan and Florida and also still gain over 270 electoral votes.”
Holly If Biden loser Fla, phibìc Carolina and Georgia, his so-called greater Midwest definitely includes winning Pennsylvania. That’s a allude that castle made. Losing Pa would seem to need picking up something big elsewhere.
Christopher ~ above the expectation-setting remarked upon earlier from the Biden campaign around Florida, what space we to do of the fact that the campaign told me this a couple of days ago about Pennsylvania — that "we deserve to win there is no Pennsylvania," though they didn't think they'd need to?
Report that just went out from the Pennsylvania Election protection Coalition on worries today in the state:
"Among the issues: number of polling locations opened late. High turnout meant long lines, i m sorry remain active at some locations. (Any standard voter in heat by 8 p.m. Is permitted to vote.) Voters spoiled mail-in ballots at high rates, and also some poll employees were confused about how to process those ballots. Non-English-speaking residents faced language access issues in ~ a couple of polling locations. Some voters express concern about imposing constables, rather reported feeling harassed. Some precincts report mechanical problems or ran out of supplies. While every one of these issues are concerning, none of them are too much out that the simple for issues that to happen during any type of normal choice year — and also this year was far from normal, with many expecting the worst in terms of potential disruptions and also possible conflict."
Both campaigns have militaries of attorneys at the prepared for PA and also other states. A prolonged post-Election court fight is the script Biden's camp has actually so fiercely do the efforts to avoid by expanding their map to 17 states.
Mail-in number in PA:1,658,804 actors by registered Democrats599,494 cast by registered Republicans284,931 actors by those registered together no affiliation/third party/other about 548,000 mail-in ballots have actually not been changed as of currently — but if they room postmarked by election Day (or over there is no a "preponderance that evidence" they were sent after) and received within 3 days, the state can be fried Court said they should be counted
30,000+ letter ballots — a teeny tiny fraction of the 2.5 million received as the this morning in the state — were just reported in Pennsylvania. We may be start the quick "blue mirage" section of the night, where Biden deceptively looks choose he's law well since counties first report the letter ballots they've been counting every day, and Biden pendant disproportionately voted by mail.
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I feel prefer my task this entire night can be explaining why #nothingmatters in PA.