Just weeks ~ the election, president Obama has launched a campaign-style journey to acquire the upper hand in budget talks v Republicans.

How the negotiations play the end will carry out a much clearer measure up of precisely how much clout he gained in win re-election.

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Obama’s success at the polls to be due in no small component to his campaign organization, i beg your pardon is gaining well-deserved attention for its innovative use the analytics. (The famously data-driven Mitt Romney, ~ above the other hand, may have been misled by faulty interior numbers, as a recent new Republic short article illustrated.)


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The prominence of Obama’s campaign “ground game” jumps out in numbers created from David Wasserman’s 2012 choice spreadsheet. Overall, the popular vote fell by around 3.5% from 2008 in many of the nation — the 42 claims that did not feel the full effects of project advertising and organizing (turnout, together a percentage of the vote-eligible population, was off by also more). However the renowned vote complete rose through 2% in its entirety in the eight many heavily contested swing states (Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, Wisconsin, Iowa and new Hampshire), all of which Obama won.

And yet, in spite of those gains and Obama’s electoral university landslide (332 votes come Romney’s 206), the size of the president’s re-election victory remains open to interpretation.


As James Rainey newly wrote ~ above this blog, Obama is most likely to end up being the first presidential candidate due to the fact that Dwight Eisenhower in 1956 to acquire at least 51% that the famous vote in 2 consecutive elections. And also as votes proceed to it is in tallied, his margin end Romney is progressively expanding.

Still, relying on the historical lens, an dispute can it is in made that Obama’s victory was less than sweeping.

He winner by one of the slimmest spare part of any kind of incumbent president in nearly a century: around 3.6%, or just fifty percent of his 7.3% win margin in 2008. The slippage was due, in part, come the impacts of the worst economic downturn since the an excellent Depression. (Arguably, his margin would have been slightly larger had actually it no been because that the results of Hurricane Sandy; the autumn in turnout in brand-new York, brand-new Jersey and Connecticut accounted for roughly fifty percent of the complete falloff in renowned votes nationwide.)

By comparison through Obama’s slim margin, nearly all of the 12 presidential incumbents that won elections native 1904 come 2004 did for this reason by much an ext comfortable margins, about 12 percentage points, top top average. Amongst the many recent examples: Presidents invoice Clinton (8.5 portion points in 1996), Ronald Reagan (18 percent points in 1984) and also Richard Nixon (23 portion points in 1972).

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George W. Shrub was the biggest exception to that pattern. His 2004 re-election to be by 2.5 percentage points. That actually represented an improvement for Bush, who took office after losing the well-known vote by fifty percent a percent point.

What occurred right after ~ Bush’s impossibly tiny win in 2000 is precious remembering. The brand-new president seized strength as if he had won in a landslide and, by the center of 2001, succeeded in it spreads widely a sweeping taxes cut.

An expiration date was applied on those taxation cuts, since Republicans didn’t have the votes to do them permanent, setup the stage for the spending plan dealings that will frame Obama’s second term, even before inauguration day.