Share every sharing alternatives for: 7 charts that describe why Hillary Clinton lost in 2008 — and also why she"s to win in 2016


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Gabriel Bouys / AFP / Getty
best now, Hillary Clinton is the frontrunner because that the 2016 autonomous presidential nomination. As you may recall, she remained in a comparable position eight years earlier — and, after ~ a long and bitter contest, she finished up losing.

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There space several components that, taken into consideration together, describe Clinton"s 2008 major defeat: Barack Obama"s powerhouse fundraising, place on the Iraq war, appeal to black voters, and small-state organizing all assisted him narrowly edge the end a victory. Meanwhile, Clinton failure to dominate the fundraising or proof games, and also she had actually long looked fragile in a vital early state.

However, nobody of these factors that aided Obama show up to be present this time around. So, to understand why Clinton looks so extraordinarily dominant in the 2016 primaries, it"s worth taking a look ago why she went under to defeat. Together a review says she more than likely won"t lose again.

1) democracy hated the Iraq war

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Hillary Clinton had a huge weakness going right into the 2008 main that was clear from the begin — she had actually voted to authorize the Iraq war, and also Democrats really, yes, really hated the Iraq war.

This chart shows a vote from august 2007, in i beg your pardon a massive 81 percent autonomous voters said the war was a mistake. At this point, Clinton had also become an important of the war. But her key opponent, Barack Obama, had provided a speech saying war with Iraq would certainly be a "dumb" idea approximately the very same time that she had voted to authorize it. And also on the project trail, Clinton refuse to characterize her very own vote as a wrong or to apologize because that it.

Inequality is not Iraq

This provided a vital contrast top top an issue that was conquering politics at the moment — offering Obama one very certain example he could use come to collection himself except the frontrunner. Obama likewise capitalized on serious resentment native party activists versus Clinton and also other autonomous leaders who had authorized the war.

Some have argued that the issue of financial inequality could an in similar way springboard a less-known Clinton challenger in 2016, but this doesn"t show up likely. It"s no really clean what would be the "Iraq battle vote" of revenue inequality — a clear and also galvanizing moment that place Clinton top top the wrong next of the issue, to her party"s base. Indeed, Clinton has been suggesting lately the inequality is a large problem, as has actually the remainder of her party. Beyond that, polls have shown that democracy don"t actually want a nominee who"s an ext liberal 보다 Clinton.

2) Clinton didn"t dominate in endorsements

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As frontrunner, Hillary Clinton won many much more more endorsements than any of her rivals did in 2007. Yet her overall total wasn"t for this reason strong, historically.

This chart reflects data ~ above endorsements before the Iowa caucuses amassed by the political scientists who wrote The Party Decides. The authors built up all the endorsement details they can find — involving sitting governors, come former elected officials, to regional officeholders and also even celebrities — and also weighted that by the prestige each endorser appeared to hold in the party.

Their data mirrors that though Clinton topped Obama and Edwards in load endorsements, her complete of 45 percent was quite low — in comparison to Al Gore"s 82 percent in 2000, bill Clinton"s quite high 70 percent in the 1992 open up contest, and also even Walter Mondale"s 56 percent in 1984. The party had actually not unanimously inside wall up behind Clinton — far from it. This left an opening for a challenger.

Now, in contrast, Clinton has been racking up endorsements from optimal Democrats, even though she"s not yet official running. And also top Obama operatives choose Jim Messina, Joel Benenson, and also Jim Margolis are joining the Clinton fold quite than waiting for, say, Vice president Joe Biden come announce his plans.

3) Obama basically tied Clinton in fundraising

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Many people remember the 2008 campaign as featuring Clinton together a clear frontrunner and also dominant, supposed victor, until Obama"s shocking Iowa caucus win.

Obama"s fundraising permit him contend on supervisor Tuesday

In fact, it to be clear well before Iowa the Obama to be a serious challenger — because he was a powerhouse fundraiser that amassed almost as much money as the purported frontrunner did transparent 2007.

Fundraising is a proxy for support and enthusiasm amongst members that the party — both from elites (who give huge donations), and its basic (many that whom offer smaller donations, but vote). Obama performed an extremely well through both — that turned out that plenty of wealthy and non-wealthy liberals wanted to offer him their money.

Obama"s fundraising likewise let him have actually the money he needed to effectively capitalize ~ above his early on state wins in Iowa and South Carolina. There to be 24 primaries and also caucuses on supervisor Tuesday. If Obama had raised much less cash, he may not have actually been able come effectively complete in as many of them together he did.

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This time around, it"s obviously too beforehand to to speak definitively if any challenger to Clinton would have the ability to compete with her in fundraising. However the just potential candidate with noticeable star power and a recent record of massive fundraising success, Elizabeth Warren, isn"t running.