The Fix’s Aaron Blake breaks under what the Virginia and brand-new Jersey vote results might mean for the 2022 midterm elections. (JM Rieger/The Washington Post)

After their over-performances in Virginia and new Jersey last week (and the huge win in Virginia’s governor’s race), Republicans space feeling nice confident about taking ago the majorities in conference in following November’s midterm elections.

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We can see why. A year the end from the midterms, chairman Biden is unpopular, Americans are spooked by this strange pandemic economy, and also Republicans think Democrats’ legislative agenda is politically unpalatable.


But democrats have gained some assists in their initiative to organize control. Those include at an early stage GOP retirements and also now Republicans’ dream candidate in new Hampshire, Gov. Kris Sununu (R), announcing Tuesday he’s no going to operation for Senate.


Here’s a look in ~ what demands to happen for republic to take earlier the Senate and the home of Representatives following year.


Where that stands now: The room is break-up in a rarely 50-50 tie in between parties, but, technically, the autonomous caucus has the majority, since Vice chairman Harris (D) casts the tiebreaking vote.


What Republicans require for the majority: simply to net one seat. It is it. Then, the Senate would stand in ~ 51-49, v Republicans having a one-vote majority.


Where Republicans have a possibility to choose up seats: castle eyeing at least three purple says where Democrats are running for reelection: Arizona, Georgia and also Nevada. The an excellent news because that Democrats is the these room all claims that Biden winner in 2020, albeit not by much. The bad news because that Democrats is that Biden winner Virginia by a larger margin than any of these says — and Virginia Democrats shed all 3 statewide races critical week and their state home majority.


Candidates matter, too, and also there the a blended bag because that Republicans. In Georgia, previous president Donald trump card endorsed previous NFL player Herschel Walker in spite of allegations of domestic violence against him — among several Republican Senate candidates v ugly pasts. (Walker has said altercations v his mam happened before he well-known he was struggling mentally.)


In Pennsylvania, the estranged wife of a optimal candidate, Sean Parnell, additionally endorsed by Trump, accused that of strangling her and also hitting his young children. (Parnell denies this.) The head the Senate Republicans’ project arm freshly wouldn’t say whether Parnell is the right candidate for the job.


But in Georgia, in ~ least, the Republican facility has come roughly to walker after seeing how well the fundraises; Senate minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) newly endorsed him.


New Hampshire to be on Republicans’ priority list to knock off a Senate Democrat, however Republicans might need to reassess that, currently that Sununu announced he is not going come run against Sen. Maggie Hassan (D). He decided instead to operation for reelection together governor. Former senator Kelly Ayotte (R) more than likely won’t run either. Republicans need to uncover a candidate to make this race super compete again.


It’s no all negative for Senate Democrats: They, too, have chances to choose up seats and also mitigate any losses. Republicans room retiring next year in vain states consisting of North Carolina and Pennsylvania. That can significantly assist Democrats, because it’s much easier to win an open Senate seat 보다 to kick out a sitting senator.


Democrats have come close but had problem winning races freshly in north Carolina, a state the barely voted because that Trump twice. Yet this time, Trump could be making things harder for Republicans. A previous Republican governor, beat McCrory, is running, and he’s among the biggest names in the race. But Trump endorsed Rep. Ted Budd (R) instead, and he’s gaining most that the right-wing fist as a result.

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Democrats room counting on confusing Republican infighting this year throughout primary season to assist them victory races. While republic beat each other up in states including Pennsylvania, Democrats hope they deserve to coalesce roughly candidates who can start increasing money because that the general election. (Republicans argue the Democrats in this primaries are moving too much left to it is in electable in these violet states.)


Democrats additionally are make a play in ~ trying come knock off Sen. Ron Johnson (R) in Wisconsin, if he doesn’t retire first. That’s an additional state Biden barely won that might be quite competitive because that Democrats.