This is among those sentences the you will hear a lot in between now and Nov. 8, however it"s still remarkable. Precise never, indigenous Abraham Lincoln come George W. Bush, has an elected Republican president not won Ohio. Every time a Republican has lost Ohio, he has lost the presidency.

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The closest analog for the democrats is Maryland. Only once has a Democrat been elected to the presidency without transporting Maryland. The was the 1948 election, in i m sorry Maryland mirrored many of the remainder of the Republican northeast in backing cutting board Dewey"s candidacy for the GOP. (Despite what friend may have read in the newspapers, Dewey lost.)


In 2016, Maryland will be a lot simpler for Hillary Clinton to success (she leads by an ext than 30 points, follow to RealClearPolitics) than Ohio will be because that Donald trump card (he trails by 3).


It additionally seems unlikely that Trump will reel in a number of the various other top states that Republicans have actually relied top top in the past. New Hampshire? Maybe. Vermont? No. Illinois? Never.


For every one of the time we invest considering the red and also blue states in the presidential election process, it"s basic to forget exactly how recently those designations arose. Georgia is just one of the claims that has least repeatedly voted because that a to win Republican -- because it, favor the remainder of the Deep South, to be heavily autonomous until after the passage of the Civil rights Act.


The tricky state ~ above Hillary Clinton"s perform is Florida. Just twice has actually a Democrat won the presidency there is no winning Florida, in 1960 (John Kennedy) and also 1992 (a male named bill Clinton).


In total, the winner that the presidency has actually won Florida in 26 the the 38 elections since 1860. That"s towards the middle of the pack, as much as the goes. The claims that have actually most frequently voted for the winner the the presidency are:


Clinton will definitely win at least three of those states and also is currently leading in the various other four.


The state that"s least vital for to win the presidency, regardless of party? setting aside Alaska and Hawaii (which are still small baby states, family member to U.S. History), it"s Mississippi. Much more than fifty percent the time, the winner of Mississippi (and Georgia, Alabama and also South Dakota) hasn"t winner the presidency. 3 of those states, Trump will certainly win; only Georgia is a question mark.


The conventional caveat applies: A swimming pool of 38 vote isn"t sufficient to make declarative statements about what will and also won"t happen. I feel comfortable saying that if Hillary Clinton loses Maryland, she won"t victory the presidency. If Donald Trump loser Ohio but wins Florida and Pennsylvania (for example), he can still win.

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