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At the us election organized on 8 November 2016, Donald Trump won the Electoral university by 306 Electoral Votes (EVs), come 232 EVs for Hillary Clinton. When this appears a convincing victory, trumped won 4 states by 1.2% or less: Florida (29 EVs), Pennsylvania (20 EVs), Wisconsin (10 EVs) and also Michigan (16 EVs). Had these claims been won by Clinton, she would have won the Electoral college by a 307-231 margin.
The final Electoral university map indigenous ElectoralVote is at the top of this article. Numbers below state two-letter abbreviations space the state’s EVs. Red represents Republicans (Trump), and also blue democracy (Clinton).
Dark blue and also red says were winner by at the very least 10%, irradiate blue and red claims by 5-9%, and also states through a blue or red border through 0-4%. Says that were winner by Barack Obama in 2012, however flipped come Trump in 2016 space Florida, Iowa, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Maine is purple as it break-up its EVs, with Trump winning the rural 2nd Congressional District, while Clinton won the state; hence, Clinton winner 3 Maine EVs, come 1 because that Trump. A couple of states need to be much better on the map for Clinton given final results. Thus, Arizona must be white through a red border, Colorado light blue, and both Texas and Iowa irradiate red.
Clinton won the as whole popular vote by 65.84 million votes, come 62.98 million because that Trump, a difference of 2.86 million. Clinton’s raw vote was down just slightly native Obama’s 65.92 million in 2012, if Trump was over 2 million over Mitt Romney’s vote.
In percent terms, Clinton winner 48.1%, to Trump’s 46.0%, a 2.1% popular vote win, compared with Obama’s 3.9% win over Romney. Libertarian Gary Johnson won 3.3% and also Green Jill Stein 1.1%.
This is the 5th time the renowned vote winner has not won the Presidency; the other occasions were 1824, 1876, 1888 and 2000. Clinton’s renowned vote percent margin is the biggest for a loser since 1876, and also the 1876 election was heavily disputed.
This spreadsheet by chef Political Report analyst David Waserman provides details ~ above the well-known vote, both nationally and also for every state, including the swing indigenous the 2012 election.
Turnout at this choice was 60.0% of standard voters, increase from 58.6% in 2012. This appears low, however we room talking around eligible voters, not registered or enrolled voters. Peter Brent states 82% of eligible Australians cast a formal poll at the current Federal election, and also this is under compulsory voting.
At this election, Wisconsin (Trump by 0.8%) to be the tipping-point state. Had actually Clinton won Michigan (Trump through 0.2%) and Pennsylvania (Trump through 0.7%), she would certainly still have lost the Electoral university by 270-268. The discrepancy between the popular vote and also tipping-point state was hence 2.9% in favour the Trump, the biggest it has been due to the fact that 1948.
Education level significant reason for renowned vote/Electoral college split
The discrepancy in between the well-known vote and also Electoral College to be caused mainly by solid swings to Clinton in the two many populous states, California and Texas, but huge swings come Trump in the midwest. Clinton’s benefit in California and Texas caused zero additional EVs, if Trump’s huge gains in the midwest hugely benefited him in the Electoral College, as he won 5 midwestern states that had previously been winner by Obama, and thus acquired all those states’ EVs.
Education level was the biggest variable in explaining the swings, with higher educated voters likely to swing to Clinton, and also lower educated voter to Trump. The states Trump got had a higher proportion the non-University educated whites 보다 nationally. United state analyst Nate Silver reflects that education level, no income, explained the swings. Also in counties with much more black or spain voters than whites, the relationship between education level and also swing come Trump applied.
In the midwest, the relationship of non-University educated white skin - man is higher than nationally, and also there are few Hispanics. Blacks vote greatly for Democrats, however their turnout was under as Obama was no the candidate. Spain turnout was higher than in 2012, and also this improved Clinton’s position in Texas, Arizona and also California, which additionally have plenty of university-educated whites. However, no one of these states flipped.
While hispanic turnout to be up in Florida, trump compensated by to win non-University educated white skin - man crushingly, and this offered him a 1.2% margin in that state, compared with Obama’s 0.9% 2012 margin. So a fairly small swing was sufficient to upper and lower reversal 29 EVs come Trump.
A crucial factor in Trump’s success was the voters who did not like either candidate (18% of the complete according to departure polls) selected trump by 47-30 over Clinton. Had these voters split relatively evenly, Clinton would have won as her favourable rating surpassed Trump’s by 5 points.
The FBI’s controversial decision come reopen its investigation right into Clinton’s emails 11 days before the election probably contributed to these voters’ choices. Together Trump winner the Electoral university by 0.8%, this decision can relatively be blamed because that swinging the choice to Trump.
Why did non-University educated white skin - man desert the Democrats?
Donald Trump to be an anti-establishment candidate, while Hillary Clinton had actually been involved in national politics for at the very least the last 25 years. Return Clinton had actually some honest problems, her issues were minor contrasted with Trump’s regularly blatant misogyny, racism and outright lies. Had actually the us political facility not been so unpopular, Clinton would have actually probably won decisively.
One factor the establishment was unpopular is the affect of money in politics. Countless voters perceived that facility politicians were not on their side, however rather top top the side of lobbying groups. Trumped exploited this stress and anxiety with his drain the Swamp rhetoric.
Another reason for the establishment’s unpopularity is gridlock. In the 2010 midterm elections, republicans gained regulate of the US residence by a 242-193 margin, and have held it comfortable since. That has because been challenging for Obama and also Congress to agree top top even an easy things, together as increasing the blame limit. This fed right into anti-establishment sentiment since the government was no “getting things done”.
Democrats to be deceived by the 2012 leave polls, wherein Obama won as whole by 4 points, in spite of losing white skin - man 59-39. New York Times analyst Nate Cohn composed well prior to the election the there to be many more white voters than the 2012 leave polls had actually showed.
As the Democrats believed Obama had won regardless of being crushed with whites, castle neglected much more populist plans in favour of policies that appealed to inner cities and minorities. The an outcome is presented below: Obama won many overwhelmingly white counties in the north-east and also midwest the Trump demolished Clinton in.
Credit goes come Trump for sticking through his right-wing populism when many pundits, including countless Republicans, believed he should have actually moderated to win the election. If Trump had actually moderated, the uneducated white skin - man may have actually seen him together just one more politician, and also they would more than likely not have voted because that Trump in the exact same numbers.
Many top top the left think that Bernie Sanders would have beaten Trump had actually he to be the autonomous nominee. When Sanders’ left-wing populism appealed to several of the same voters as Trump, Sanders was a self-described democratic socialist, and this would certainly have given Trump much ammunition to paint him as a Communist. In the democratic primaries, Sanders’ “honeymoon” in Russia, once Russia was still the USSR, did not come to be an issue. Trump and also his cohorts would have actually made this a huge issue in the general election.
What happens now
The Electoral College an outcome is not fairly final. Candidates in every state appoint slates the potential electors. The statewide winner then has their slate appointed together electors. ~ above 19 December, the electors actors their votes.
Past elections have actually sometimes had actually “faithless” electors who execute not poll for the candidate to who they room pledged. Countless electors space appointed through the party organisation, no the candidates. As numerous established republicans dislike Trump, it is feasible he will shed a couple of electors, but there is no possibility he will lose 37 or an ext of his 306 EVs - he needs only 270 electors because that a bulk of the Electoral College.
On 6 January 2017, the Electoral Votes room tabulated in Congress. On 20 January in ~ 12 noon us Eastern (4am Melbourne time 21 January), Donald Trump will be inaugurated together the 45th chairman of the joined States.
Elections because that both chambers of the us Congress (the nationwide legislative body) are held every 2 years. When not hosted concurrently with a Presidential election, these elections are referred to as “midterm” elections. There are 100 Senators, who have six year terms and also represent entirety states; one-third the the Senate is elected every two years. Residence districts space apportioned ~ above a population basis, and also the 435 home members serve just two year terms.
Prior come this election, the Republicans organized a 54-46 bulk in the us Senate. That the 34 Senators up at this election, Republicans held 24 and Democrats 10. This to be a huge opportunity because that the democracy to make numerous gains, but they only gained two seats. The democrats gained new Hampshire and also Illinois, and also held Nevada, yet they narrowly lost Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and also Missouri. The republicans will organize a 52-48 bulk in the new Senate.
The Senate is the more powerful chamber, together its consent is compelled for Cabinet-level and judicial appointments. A filibuster can frequently be offered to block legislation, and also can only be get over by a 3/5 majority (60 votes).
With 48 Senators, the Democrats could stall legislation in the Senate utilizing the filibuster. However, the filibuster is component of the Senate’s rules, and also a bulk can adjust those rules. The Republicans might abolish the filibuster.
The us Supreme Court is the highest possible court. Appointment of supreme Court judges needs a filibuster-proof majority. Adhering to the death of conservative justice Antonin Scalia in February 2016, a can be fried Court seat has been vacant, and the Court has actually been break-up 4-4 left-right. Trump’s nominee will provide the best a 5-4 majority, and approving this appointment will be a flashpoint in the Senate.
In the House, the republicans will hold a 241-194 majority, under from a 247-188 majority following the 2014 midterm elections. The Republicans won the 2014 House well-known vote by 51.2-45.5, a 5.7% margin. According to David Wasserman, Republicans winner the 2016 House popular vote by 49.1-48.0, a 1.1% margin.
The November 2018 midterm elections space an chance for democrats to wrest earlier control of the House and Senate after 2 years that Trump. They probably need at the very least a 5-point famous vote margin to take it the House.
In the Senate, Democrats room in hazard of walking backwards, together they room defending 25 the the 33 seat up for election in 2018, come 8 Republican defences. Five Democrats increase in 2018 space in states Trump won by double digit margins, and only one Republican is in a state Clinton won.
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A keep in mind on united state swings: swings in the US room the difference in margin, quite than the loss or gain in one party’s vote, and also are thus dual Australian swings. For example, if one party wins a chair 52-48 at one election, climate loses it 51-49 in ~ the following election, us would define it as a 3 allude swing, while the united state would describe it together a 6 point swing (from win by 4 to shedding by 2).