Randy McKinney, that Clearwater, hold “I Voted” sticker labels moments after casting his ballot throughout early vote in Clearwater, Fla. (Douglas R. Clifford/AP)

The most evident is the coronavirus pandemic, which has spurred voters to look for out ways to reduce or get rid of the need to interact with other people when voting. There’s also likely an element of partisanship. President Trump’s false assertions about the threat posed by mail-in voting has pushed a divide in between Democrats and also Republicans top top the process. Polling has actually consistently shown that Democrats room embracing absentee and also early voting, maybe in part because trump card rejects it.

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2021 Election: complete coverage and analysisArrowRight

And climate there’s the other, subtler reason: A most voters appear to want to merely put this entirety election behind them, spreading ballots now simply to it is in done through the totality thing.

The an outcome is that an ext than 40 million ballots have already been cast in the united States, according to the United states Elections task — almost 3 for every 10 votes cast in full in the 2016 presidential race.

It’s tricky to check out too much into those numbers. We don’t know, for example, if these room voters who otherwise wouldn’t have cast a ballot. In plenty of states, we don’t know who these voter are, despite in says with partisan breakdowns of went back ballots the bulk are often from Democrats. This may be choose 2016, in the a large surge in election Day voting for Trump gives him the margins he needs.

But it’s poor news because that Trump at least to the degree that every one of these ballots have actually been cast as he trails in the polls by a far-reaching margin. If the race changes dramatically in the next week, that won’t issue for those 40 million voter who’ve already weighed in, a team that will most likely constitute at least a 4 minutes 1 of the full electorate.

In five states and Washington, D.C., more votes have been actors early 보다 Trump acquired there in 2016 overall. Most of them room deep blue, for this reason surpassing Trump’s complete isn’t as large a marker together it could otherwise seem. However it’s likewise true in Texas, a state which has actually been surprisingly close in the polls and also which trump card unequivocally have to win if he is to earn another four years in office.

In 10 states, we room able to compare the current variety of early votes cast to the number cast at the same point in the 2016 gyeongju (that is, about two weeks before Election Day). In each state except Nevada, the number of early votes actors so much is up significantly.

In Georgia, the present number is about double where the state was 2 weeks before the 2016 election. In Wisconsin, 3.3 times as plenty of votes have actually been actors relative to the point. In Ohio, it’s an ext than four times together many.

In these 10 states, the at an early stage vote is up an median of more than 136 percent loved one to the same suggest in 2016 — much more than double, top top average. The number of votes cast is, top top average, about 37 percent of the complete votes cast in the critical election.

Again, that’s much more heavily a function of Democrats casting votes than Republicans, at least according come the 5 states because that which we have data.

On average, the number of ballots reverted by democrats is more than double the number reverted by the same point in 2016, when the number of Republican ballots went back is increase only around 40 percent. Democrats have returned ballots (or voted early) in these 5 states equal to around a 3rd of the total votes Hillary Clinton got in the says in 2016, while Republicans have actually returned ballots equivalent to a fifth of Trump’s totals.

Again, this might not typical anything an ext than democrats are motivated to cast ballots by mail and to vote early. But it does average that previous vice president Joe Biden probably has a lot an ext ballots in the financial institution than does Trump.

Why walk this matter? Well, consider the possibility that over there is widespread turmoil on choice Day, troubles at polls making it more difficult to vote. Or, much more benignly, assume that negative weather arrives previously in November 보다 normal, making the harder for voters to obtain to the polls (or, in ~ least, to decrease the urgency castle feel about doing so).

Trump has actually made a huge to-do about the preferably of poll in person. That means that he will nearly certainly be starting the day rolling Biden by a broad margin, a margin the he needs to make up with a surge of Republican voters. The risk of the strategy is that the surge won’t be or can’t be the one he needs.

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