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pendant cheer for Sen. Elizabeth Warren after ~ she signed records to officially enter the new Hampshire major race in Concord, brand-new Hampshire, top top November 13, 2019. Joseph Prezioso/AFP via Getty images
CONCORD, brand-new Hampshire — The new Hampshire major on Tuesday could provide the democratic race for president v some much-needed clarity after ~ the Iowa caucuses devolved into chaos critical week.

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It’s likely no such chaos will occur in brand-new Hampshire, which has a traditional secret-ballot primary and whose voters use file ballots.

When voters in this small brand-new England state head to the polls on February 11 (polls close by 8 pm Eastern), they will be fighting because that a section of the state’s only 24 delegates — less than 1 percent the the pledged delegates in the democratic nominating contest. However if history tells us anything, yes a lot more on the line 보다 delegates. Due to the fact that the primary is a far different kind that election 보다 the Iowa caucuses, the result here won’t necessarily confirm Iowa’s results.

“In new Hampshire, you’ve got to appeal to a totality bunch of independents,” attorney and longtime politico bill Shaheen (husband to Sen. Jeanne Shaheen) called me last fall. Undeclared voters, regularly referred to together independents, consist of 42 percent of the full registered voter in the state — yet they hardly vote as a bloc.

Political specialists here space watching to watch if background repeats itself with one more win by Sanders, the independent senator native Vermont. Sanders winner the 2016 new Hampshire major handily and also is still considered the favourite to win v a plurality. In the RealClearPolitics polling average of new Hampshire, he’s at this time 7.4 points front of his closest competitor, previous South Bend, Indiana, market Pete Buttigieg, and also ahead the Sen. Elizabeth Warren, previous Vice chairman Joe Biden, and Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, who are tied because that third.

If the Iowa caucuses confirmed us anything, it’s the a lot can readjust before the actual vote. It’s worth noting that brand-new Hampshire voters make up their minds notoriously so late in the process.

“I have actually not comprised my mind,” phibìc Conway elevation voter Nancy Stewart, 72, told me in early on January. Stewart was stuck between Warren and also Klobuchar but was additionally waiting to watch Buttigieg speak. “I’ll make it up more than likely the day i go in” come vote, she said.

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Sen. Elizabeth Warren speaks throughout a town hall at Keene State university in Keene, brand-new Hampshire, top top September 25, 2019. Scott Eisen/Getty photos numerous Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents below are experiencing the politics indecision racking the remainder of the country. The polls have been changing over the past couple of months, and just favor the party as a whole, many space obsessed v finding the many “electable” candidate to beat chairman Donald Trump.

“I want that guy out therefore bad, ns can’t also tell you. Obtaining Trump out, that’s No. 1,” Conway voter Mike Manson, trying to decide amongst Klobuchar, Biden, and also Buttigieg, told me.

A strong brand-new Hampshire end up can breathe new life right into the optimal three candidates’ campaigns. Those who end up lower will uncover the primary to be an additional nail in the coffin.

Still, the rule are various this year, and also by the time brand-new Hampshire outcomes are reported, thousands will certainly have currently started voting in the at sight Tuesday states. As historically crucial as new Hampshire has been, it might be standing between the autonomous Party the old and a new, much more diverse one.

“It is a privilege based in no rationality in ~ all the we’re no going to give up,” Dover voter Jeremiah Dickinson claimed to me at a recent Warren town hall. “I think the criticisms of it space valid.”

Who can win in brand-new Hampshire in 2020 — and also who requirements to

Political experts are the town hall to watch whether Sanders deserve to reprise his blowout brand-new Hampshire success of 2016. The senator native Vermont has maintained a hold on his neighboring state; though he’s most likely nowhere close to repeating his 22-point win against Hillary Clinton four years ago, that has damaged away as the frontrunner in the RealClearPolitics new Hampshire average, v Buttigieg in 2nd and Biden, Warren, and Klobuchar all basically tied because that third.

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RealClearPolitics brand-new Hampshire is crucial for all 4 frontrunners to victory — not for amassing delegates, however for the much-needed momentum it bestows.

“Someone who wins is a winner; if you lose, you a loser,” said University of new Hampshire pollster Andy Smith. Candidates desire to downplay expectations, then overperform castle come election night.

New Hampshire’s primary can be do or break because that Sanders (who won it in 2016), Warren (who, prefer Sanders, hails native a neighboring state), and Biden (the nationwide frontrunner). “Who has actually the many to lose, it’s really Sanders and Warren, however Biden as well — he is the previous vice president,” blacksmith told me. “If any kind of of those 3 underperforms expectations, they may need to drop out. There’s not enough room for all 3 of them.”

Buttigieg and Klobuchar — building on Friday’s solid debate performance — could have the most to get by overperforming expectations, political professionals told me.

has the most to acquire by a new Hampshire win, but she’s additionally in the weakest position,” blacksmith said. “If performs even and expected, that would be a an increase for him. This is the first time he is in a general election format and that he’s able to walk toe-to-toe through the big guys.”

Why winning new Hampshire is together a boost

New Hampshire wields a comprehensive amount of political power — this year an ext than ever following Iowa’s muddled caucus results. Historically, no major-party nominee has won the nomination there is no coming an initial or 2nd in new Hampshire. To win here, all else equal, rises a candidate’s supposed share the the major vote by 27 percent points, politics scientist william Mayer created in 2004.

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This small brand-new England state has actually a well-documented history of elevating underdogs and leveling frontrunners, and also political specialists here said me that as likely to have actually a “dark horse” candidate surprise as it would be for the optimal three to complete well in both Iowa and new Hampshire.

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vermont senator and presidential candidate Bernie Sanders campaigns at the university of new Hampshire in Durham top top September 30, 2019. Call Ehrler/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty images The an extremely fact that brand-new Hampshire has a classic secret-ballot vote might give that extra prestige in 2020.